Nobody would have forecast the volume of minutes consumed today, the time spent using devices for other things (such as game playing) or that the total number of active handsets would commonly exceed 100% of the population. Some might also have predicted the amount of use based on substituting half, or even all, of the existing landline telephony minutes consumed per person at that time. When mobile phones were first commercialized in 1984 at approximately $4,000, the target market might have been viewed as “all mobile business executives.” More ambitiously, some may have hypothesized that the maximum extent of the market would be that, one day, every person in a country might have a mobile phone. At the start of an innovation, the projected target market may be wildly misjudged. By doing so, they will avoid being left behind in their industry.Įstimating the ultimate penetration level. Organizations can check through later-stage innovation profiles to ensure they do not inadvertently miss out on a key innovation that is entering maturity. Using the spreadsheet as a risk-reduction tool. They can then ask, “Could this innovation bring us a competitive advantage?” For example, organizations can select early stage innovation profiles (with maturity levels of “embryonic” or “emerging,” or with a Hype Cycle position before the peak). Using the spreadsheet to drive creativity at IT or management off-site meetings.
This will enable the organization to educate business or IT audiences about the peaks and troughs in expectations that they can expect as the innovation profiles mature. Keeping the spreadsheet available as a resource for technology research and enterprise architecture planning (for example, looking up definitions or vendors).Ĭreating a Hype Cycle of innovation profiles that the organization is adopting or evaluating. Searching the spreadsheet for innovation profiles relevant to specific initiatives for business partners. Some early stage venture capitalists may sell at this point.Įstablished companies buy one or two early leading suppliers in expensive, high-profile acquisitions toward the end of the peak. Investors aggressively seek a representative supplier for their portfolio. Suppliers can provide one or two references of early adopters. Suppliers with products in related markets align their positioning and their marketing with the theme of the innovation. Simple, exaggerated, nonspecific declarative marketing slogans appear, such as “I have cloud power” and “cloud is the answer.”Ī surge of suppliers (often 30 or more) offer variations on the innovation. For example, the wireless networking technology called “802.11g” became “Wi-Fi.”Īnalysts, bloggers and the press speculate about the future impact and transformational power of the innovation. The trade and business press run frequent stories about the innovation and how early adopters are using it.Ī popular name catches on in place of the original, more academic or specialist engineering terminology. A sharp rise in adoption begins (resembling a hockey stick when shown graphically), and penetration accelerates rapidly as a result of productive and useful value. Plateau of Productivity: With the real-world benefits of the innovation demonstrated and accepted, growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable with the now greatly reduced levels of risk. Their understanding grows about where and how the innovation can be used to good effect and, just as importantly, where it brings little or no value. Organizations draw on the experience of the early adopters. Slope of Enlightenment: Some early adopters overcome the initial hurdles, begin to experience benefits and recommit efforts to move forward. Problems with performance, slower-than-expected adoption or a failure to deliver financial returns in the time anticipated all lead to missed expectations, and disillusionment sets in. Trough of Disillusionment: Inevitably, impatience for results begins to replace the original excitement about potential value. In some cases, an investment bubble forms, as happened with the web and social media. Peak of Inflated Expectations: A wave of “buzz” builds and the expectations for this innovation rise above the current reality of its capabilities. Innovation Trigger (formerly called Technology Trigger): The Hype Cycle starts when a breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates press and industry interest in a technology innovation.
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